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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.